Fantasy Football Draft Helper

The score: Wolverines 102.30, Ether 98.49. Yes, I actually lost my first round playoff game by a “whopping” 3.81 points this past weekend.

In some ways, I wish I had simply been blown out because I wouldn’t be still second-guessing my week 15 lineup decisions today.

Sure, I was handicapped by the fact that I had just lost wide receiving stud Greg Jennings to a regular season-ending knee injury just a week ago. But that’s no excuse, injuries are a part of the game.

But I am kicking myself about the decision to start Kellen Winslow (vs. Dallas) over the Eagles’ Brent Celek, who set a franchise tight end receiving record with his 156 yards (and a touchdown) against the enigmatic Jets.

Even with that, I entered the Sunday night matchup between the Ravens and the Chargers with Ray Rice and Vincent Jackson still left to play, trailing by only two fantasy points. My opponent had Ryan Mathews left.

You’d think I would’ve won with that setup? Wrong, I got nipped by the aforementioned score.

But that’s fantasy football. There are no excuses nor any crying. I’ll leave the crying to the Dallas Cowboys (see post image).

Just in case you were wondering, I am a Washington Redskins fan (insert smile).

Alas, my fantasy football regular season came to an end last week (14). Through a combination of luck and skill, Ether has survived until the playoff round starting this week (15).

A few posts ago I told you who would comprise my starting lineup should I make the playoffs. Now that I have made the playoffs, I’m here to tell you that my starting lineup is pretty much the same, except for the removal of Green Bay’s best receiver Greg Jennings due to injury.

For better or for worse, I have inserted Pierre Garcon (vs. Tennessee) into his starting spot alongside the mercurial Vincent Jackson (vs. Baltimore). I also swapped tight end Brent Celek for Kellen Winslow (vs. Dallas), for this week at least.

My biggest dilemma is at the flex position. Should I start Ben Tate who’s at home against the porous Carolina Panther run defense or Mario Manningham against the Washington Redskins’ solid, yet unspectacular pass defense?

The case for the Texans’ Tate is that he’s facing the 9th worst run defense in the NFL and he’s likely to dominate the garbage time carries should the Texans garner a big league heading into the fourth quarter. The case against Tate is that his production, and most recently, his lack of production is a function of teammate Arian Foster’s domination of the total carries.

The case for Mario Manningham is that he’s scored a touchdown in four of his last five starts and will likely see single coverage most of the game because his teammates Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks will draw the bulk of the defense’s attention. The case against Manningham is mainly that those same aforementioned teammates can stifle his production based on their own prowess.

Decision, decisions, decisions…but it could be worse. I could be “home” for the playoffs.

Wish me luck ladies and gentlemen.

About seven months ago, with the NFL season hanging in the balance with the lockout in full effect, I provided an early look into the season. More specifically, I attempted to predict fantasy football’s MVP’s, by position (excluding placekicker and defense) for 2011.

Please take a look at my predictions (in italics) and who I have selected as my MVP’s based on their 2011 performance, year-to-date (in bold).

At quarterback, I predicted that Aaron Rodgers would be fantasy’s best, and the self-proclaimed “people’s champ” has indeed proven his worth. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is the best player in fantasy football…period.

My top running back prediction of Adrian Peterson has not been proven right. Don’t get me wrong, “AP” is still arguably pro football’s best running back as well as one of fantasy football’s top three backs, but 2011 honors must go to LeSean McCoy. The latter has been that good.

My wide receiver selection of Andre Johnson has been marred by injury. Nonetheless, it’s not an excuse. Injuries are a part of the game. Enter Calvin Johnson as 2011′s top fantasy football wideout.

And lastly, I, like countless others assumed that Antonio Gates would be fantasy football’s uber-tight end in 2011. Boy, was I ever wrong.

Not only has Jimmy Graham emerged as the best tight end this year by far, but he’s putting up numbers that top-tier wide receivers would envy. We may not see this kind of season from a tight end for years to come.

You have real, NFL football, which fantasy football is based off of. Then you have otherworldly football, which is the plane that the triumvirate of Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are currently toting the pigskin from.

Why is Cam Newton Smiling?

And for purposes here, they will not be included in any weekly ranking list that I produce for the remainder of the fantasy football season.

They’re just too damn good, and it’s not fair to other quarterbacks who are toting pigskins on planet Earth.

And without further adieu, the top three quarterbacks for week 13 are:

1. Eli Manning vs. the Green Bay Packers. I’ll admit, I have always been slightly biased against Peyton’s little brother. Since he was drafted by the San Diego Chargers and forced a trade (with an assist from his dad Archie) to the New York (football) Giants, I always felt he was more name and hype than franchise quarterback.

Sure, he’s won a Super Bowl as well as the game’s MVP trophy a few years ago, but this season has produced his best individual work.

Devoid of a running game, Eli has almost single-handedly kept the Giants in contention (for now at least). Sporting the sixth-best passer rating in the league and facing the league’s worst pass defense, look for Eli to carve up the Packers secondary a week after Thanksgiving, albeit in a losing effort.

2. Cam Newton @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sir Isaac Newton stated that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Cam Newton will have that type of impact on the shoddy Buccaneers pass defense.

Sticking with the math and science theme, here’s an equation to consider: 19 (the number of passing touchdowns yielded by Tampa Bay) + 12 (Cam’s passing touchdown total) = 31 (my projection of Cam Newton’s fantasy football output this Sunday).

And last but not least, feel free to start 3. Matthew Stafford without hesitation at the New Orleans Saints. I do not expect Stafford’s Lions to win the game, but just like Eli Manning did this past Monday night, the Saints have shown a penchant for winning big, which leads to their opponents passing big in an effort to catch up. You can add Stafford to that list.

Nearly three months ago, I was basking in the glow of what I felt was a pretty decent fantasy football draft. OK, perhaps using the word ‘basking’ to describe my draft is a bit much, but I definitely felt good about my squad after draft day.

And up until this point in the season, my positive feelings about Ether have been somewhat validated, since my team’s core is relatively intact (see drafted players in bold below).

With three games left in my league’s regular season and no bye weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, this is the starting lineup that I plan to roll with each week through the playoffs-assuming I make them.

Matt Ryan QB ATL vs. MINN

Arian Foster RB HOU at JAC

Ray Rice RB BAL vs. SF

Greg Jennings WR GB at DET

Vincent Jackson WR SD vs. DEN

Mario Manningham WR NYG (‘flex’) at NO

Brent Celek TE PHI vs. NE

Sebastian Janikowski PK OAK vs CHI

Cowboys DST vs. MIA

My fantasy football saga continues this “Thanksgiving Thursday” when Greg Jennings visits Ford Field in the afternoon, and Ray Rice looks to be an unwelcoming host to the NFC West-leading 49ers in the evening.

All the while, I’ll be stuffing (pun intended) my face.