Fantasy Football Draft Helper

About seven months ago, with the NFL season hanging in the balance with the lockout in full effect, I provided an early look into the season. More specifically, I attempted to predict fantasy football’s MVP’s, by position (excluding placekicker and defense) for 2011.

Please take a look at my predictions (in italics) and who I have selected as my MVP’s based on their 2011 performance, year-to-date (in bold).

At quarterback, I predicted that Aaron Rodgers would be fantasy’s best, and the self-proclaimed “people’s champ” has indeed proven his worth. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is the best player in fantasy football…period.

My top running back prediction of Adrian Peterson has not been proven right. Don’t get me wrong, “AP” is still arguably pro football’s best running back as well as one of fantasy football’s top three backs, but 2011 honors must go to LeSean McCoy. The latter has been that good.

My wide receiver selection of Andre Johnson has been marred by injury. Nonetheless, it’s not an excuse. Injuries are a part of the game. Enter Calvin Johnson as 2011′s top fantasy football wideout.

And lastly, I, like countless others assumed that Antonio Gates would be fantasy football’s uber-tight end in 2011. Boy, was I ever wrong.

Not only has Jimmy Graham emerged as the best tight end this year by far, but he’s putting up numbers that top-tier wide receivers would envy. We may not see this kind of season from a tight end for years to come.

You have real, NFL football, which fantasy football is based off of. Then you have otherworldly football, which is the plane that the triumvirate of Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are currently toting the pigskin from.

Why is Cam Newton Smiling?

And for purposes here, they will not be included in any weekly ranking list that I produce for the remainder of the fantasy football season.

They’re just too damn good, and it’s not fair to other quarterbacks who are toting pigskins on planet Earth.

And without further adieu, the top three quarterbacks for week 13 are:

1. Eli Manning vs. the Green Bay Packers. I’ll admit, I have always been slightly biased against Peyton’s little brother. Since he was drafted by the San Diego Chargers and forced a trade (with an assist from his dad Archie) to the New York (football) Giants, I always felt he was more name and hype than franchise quarterback.

Sure, he’s won a Super Bowl as well as the game’s MVP trophy a few years ago, but this season has produced his best individual work.

Devoid of a running game, Eli has almost single-handedly kept the Giants in contention (for now at least). Sporting the sixth-best passer rating in the league and facing the league’s worst pass defense, look for Eli to carve up the Packers secondary a week after Thanksgiving, albeit in a losing effort.

2. Cam Newton @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sir Isaac Newton stated that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Cam Newton will have that type of impact on the shoddy Buccaneers pass defense.

Sticking with the math and science theme, here’s an equation to consider: 19 (the number of passing touchdowns yielded by Tampa Bay) + 12 (Cam’s passing touchdown total) = 31 (my projection of Cam Newton’s fantasy football output this Sunday).

And last but not least, feel free to start 3. Matthew Stafford without hesitation at the New Orleans Saints. I do not expect Stafford’s Lions to win the game, but just like Eli Manning did this past Monday night, the Saints have shown a penchant for winning big, which leads to their opponents passing big in an effort to catch up. You can add Stafford to that list.

Nearly three months ago, I was basking in the glow of what I felt was a pretty decent fantasy football draft. OK, perhaps using the word ‘basking’ to describe my draft is a bit much, but I definitely felt good about my squad after draft day.

And up until this point in the season, my positive feelings about Ether have been somewhat validated, since my team’s core is relatively intact (see drafted players in bold below).

With three games left in my league’s regular season and no bye weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, this is the starting lineup that I plan to roll with each week through the playoffs-assuming I make them.

Matt Ryan QB ATL vs. MINN

Arian Foster RB HOU at JAC

Ray Rice RB BAL vs. SF

Greg Jennings WR GB at DET

Vincent Jackson WR SD vs. DEN

Mario Manningham WR NYG (‘flex’) at NO

Brent Celek TE PHI vs. NE

Sebastian Janikowski PK OAK vs CHI

Cowboys DST vs. MIA

My fantasy football saga continues this “Thanksgiving Thursday” when Greg Jennings visits Ford Field in the afternoon, and Ray Rice looks to be an unwelcoming host to the NFC West-leading 49ers in the evening.

All the while, I’ll be stuffing (pun intended) my face.

As my fantasy football league enters its stretch run (four regular season games remaining), making the right lineup decision can be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

Week 11 poses a very particular challenge for fantasy players. It’s the last bye week in the NFL and fantasy owners will have to make due without the services of the Houston Texans (Arian Foster), New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees), Pittsburgh Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger) and the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts being off is particularly frustrating, as you won’t be able to start your studs against their awful defense.

Running Back

The best running back available in week 11 is Maurice Jones-Drew of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s facing a Cleveland Browns defense that yields over 140 rushing yards a game. They’ve been somewhat stingy when it comes to giving up rushing touchdowns (6), but look for MJD to run amok here.

Wide Receiver

There is no clear choice as the top wide receiver this week. My choice has a ton of upside-he’s capable of scoring multiple touchdowns and over 100 receiving yards on any given Sunday. But he’s also shown that he can have a game of two catches and 20 yards.

Yes, San Diego’s Vincent “V-Jax” Jackson can break your heart (if he’s on your roster) or break your opponents will (if he’s on his game). I think the Bears’ porous pass defense will facilitate Jackson being “on his game.” Start him with confidence.

Tight End

If V-Jax doesn’t shred the Bears secondary, expect his teammate Antonio Gates to have his back. The Bears may still win the game, but I strongly suspect that the receiving war will be won by the Chargers.

Placekicker

My favorite football team, the Washington Redskins, have given up the most field goals in the NFL. And with the way the surging, visiting Dallas Cowboys are playing right now, the ‘Skins would be happy to add to their field goals-allowed totals.

That would mean that they’d likely be in a competitive game, if they can yield FGs rather than TDs. The benefactor will be Dallas’s placekicker, Dan Bailey.

Defense

Again, my ‘Skins are on the wrong side of the top fantasy play equation. They are a great candidate to make the Dallas Cowboys look good on defense. They turn the ball over in bunches (21 to be exact), have no quarterback to speak of, and are simply over-matched here.

This rivalry game could get very ugly for my beloved Redskins.

By the way, I didn’t forget the Quarterback position. It’s obvious that Aaron Rodgers is and will be the top play as long as he’s standing. So don’t expect to see the QB position listed each week in my posts.

The best quarterback option for week 10 is Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers against the Minnesota Vikings. One can make the argument that Rodgers is the best starting QB option every week, and they wouldn’t be wrong for stating that.

But this matchup is more appealing than usual for the “uber-signal caller” Rodgers. The Vikings have given up the 7th most passing touchdowns and the third most passing yards per game. 35-40 points is a distinct possibility here.

At running back, Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars) owners must be salivating. Shoot, isn’t anyone who knows they’re facing the Colts defense getting the celebratory champagne ready? “MJD” will run through and around the pathetic Indianapolis defense on his was to a 25-30 point day.

Kansas City Chief wideout Dwayne Bowe has an excellent matchup in store when he faces the defensively-challenged Broncos secondary. Don’t let Champ Bailey’s presence in the defensive backfield scare you away, Bowe will slice this team up for 20 fantasy points or more.

The touchdown flood gates will likely open for Antonio in week 10. OK, let’s forget the cheesy play on words I just wrote.

Simply put, the Chargers’ Antonio Gates normally scores in bunches against the rival Raiders. Combine that with the fact they they have yielded the 7th most receiving touchdowns this year and that his quarterback Phillip Rivers appears to have re-discovered his mojo, look for a Gates explosion on Thursday night.

The Detroit Lions have a pretty solid defense. But that’s good news for Robbie Gould (Bears) owners. Why? Although the Lions often keep teams out of the end zone, they don’t prevent them from kicking the ball through the uprights. In fact, they’ve yielded the third most field goals in the NFL. Look for Gould to glitter in five days.

What do you get when you pit one of the fiercest, most opportunistic defenses of the past ten years-the Baltimore Ravens, against one of the most turnover-prone offenses in 2011-Seattle Seahawks? You get a fantasy delight for Ravens owners.